Armenia's upcoming election on June 7th is a pivotal moment, with the country's future direction hanging in the balance. The election has captured international attention, particularly due to the intense economic pressure from Russia, which is attempting to sway the outcome in favor of a pro-Western government. This is a fascinating case study in the complex interplay between geopolitics, domestic politics, and economic leverage.
The election is centered around Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has been a driving force behind Armenia's shift towards the West. Since his rise to power in 2018, Pashinyan has steered the country away from Russia's influence, pursued European integration, and actively participated in the peace process with neighboring Azerbaijan. These actions have not only garnered international acclaim but also won him endorsements from world leaders like Donald Trump and European officials.
However, Pashinyan's domestic support has been on a downward trajectory, falling from 54% in 2021 to around 30% today. This decline is largely attributed to the controversial peace deal with Azerbaijan, which has sparked deep divisions within the country. Critics accuse Pashinyan of making concessions that have damaged Armenia's national interests, particularly regarding the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation has led to a fragmented opposition, with former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan leading rival parties, both advocating for a return to Russia's influence for national security.
The opposition's main challenger, Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-connected billionaire, is under house arrest on charges of plotting to overthrow the government. This further complicates the political landscape, as the opposition's divided nature makes it difficult to challenge Pashinyan effectively. Despite this, Pashinyan's party, Civil Contract, remains the frontrunner in recent polls, with 32% support.
The economic pressure from Russia is a significant factor in the election. Moscow has banned the export of various Armenian goods, including flowers, mineral water, cognac, fresh vegetables, and fruit, just before the election. This move is seen as an attempt to impact the election's outcome, as Russia is Armenia's leading trade partner, accounting for 36% of its foreign trade. The high cost of Russian gas, at $177.50 per 1,000 cubic meters, compared to European market prices exceeding $600, further highlights the economic leverage Russia holds over Armenia.
Despite the challenges, Pashinyan's campaign has been robust, with the slogan 'Stand for Peace!' resonating with many. However, the campaign has also been marked by confrontations, particularly with displaced Karabakh Armenians, which has led to accusations of authoritarianism and the use of state resources for political gain. The opposition has criticized Pashinyan's administration for spreading fear and blackmailing civil servants to attend rallies.
The question for ordinary Armenians is whether they are willing to endure the economic costs associated with Pashinyan's pro-Western direction, knowing that a fully realized European future remains distant. The election on June 7th will provide a clear answer to this question, shaping Armenia's future trajectory and its relationship with both Russia and the West.
